A team of international researchers led by NASA scientists is exploring a nuclear strategy to neutralize asteroid 2024 YR, which poses a potential impact risk to the Moon in 2032. The findings are detailed in a preprint published on Cornell University’s arXiv.

The 60-meter-wide asteroid has a 4% probability of hitting the Moon. Should this happen, the collision would release a vast cloud of lunar debris, potentially increasing micrometeoroid density around Earth up to 1000 times above normal levels for several days — endangering satellites, the ISS (if operational), and upcoming lunar missions.

Traditional kinetic deflection, like that used in NASA’s DART mission, is deemed too risky due to wide uncertainty in the asteroid’s mass — estimated between 51 and 711 million kg. A miscalculated impact could send the rock toward Earth instead.

To mitigate the risk, researchers suggest launching an unmanned spacecraft equipped with a 1-megaton nuclear warhead — along with a backup device for redundancy. By 2028, the asteroid will approach Earth, allowing for refined measurements. If a real threat is confirmed, the mission launch window would open between late 2029 and the end of 2031.